4x4 Fortune tellers: When will Cruiser 200 prices drop?

[LesseW]

Good morning,

This Thread is for the 4x4 Fortune tellers and not the Toyota haters, irrespective if you feel that a Disco/Range Rover/ Haval H5 / XUV 500 or any other vehicle in this class offers more value for money compared to a Cruiser 200.... we had that debate many times before and Toyota drivers always won, because they insist that they won and a fight will ensue if the debate continues....

The pricing for these vehicles are insane and they are definitely over priced because:

1. Limited stock availability (200 no longer manufactured because the 300 was on its way)
2. Long waiting times (because of point 1)
3. It is a reliable vehicle and in high demand

I really want to purchase a 200 because I am a big Toyota fan and in 15 years that I drive Toyotas (9 Toyotas in total), I never had a single repair done that cost me money (apart from services and excluding where I rolled/crashed the vehicle).

When will the Cruiser 200 prices drop, IF EVER, to a point where one can buy i.e.:

1. 2018 model cruiser 200 (Cleavage bonnet is a must)
2. less than 100km on the clock
3. under R 900 000
4. VX, not GX

Would be great to hear from the 4x4 economists!

[Mike Nel]

Did the Cruiser 100 drop? Nope. They are still in very high demand.
The 200VX will drop quicker than the GX. I think in a he next 24 months you might pick up a 200VX for under R900K.

You want to see crazy prices? Check the second hand FJ market.

[KurtG]

With all due respect Wessel, is this just a brag thread?

Who the F knows when the market will change, it’s driven purely by supply and demand and no member here will be able to give you a straight answer, ons is almal te dom…. my 2cw

[LesseW]

Kurt, help me understand where i wanted to brag? If I wanted to brag I would’ve said I bought a 200 at 1.5 bar but I cannot say that because I can’t afford that.

If there is no point in the thread for you then so be it. I am curious though what others would say.


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[LesseW]

Did the Cruiser 100 drop? Nope. They are still in very high demand.
The 200VX will drop quicker than the GX. I think in a he next 24 months you might pick up a 200VX for under R900K.

You want to see crazy prices? Check the second hand FJ market.

Thanks Mike, others estimate 6 months. Some 200Vx sell for more than the 300, i am sure this will stop in the next month as 300 stock increase.


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[Mad Manny]

Before anyone can answer the question on when prices will drop, you need to establish three things;
1. Why prices rose
2. Whether they will drop.
3. How this applies to the LC200

The answer to point 1. is what is known as the 'Covid Tax' basically, all used vehicles were once new vehicles, so, when the flow of new cars into market slows, there is obviously a later slowdown of used vehicles into the market.
This decrease in supply increases demand which increases prices.

During Covid less new vehicles were sold & now, with the silicon chip shortage, there is still a backlog.

So, now that we know WHY prices rose, we know that, once supply of new vehicles 'normalises' the later supply of used vehicle will correct & the cause of the price increase will be negated.

The answer to point 2 is a bit more complex, yes, once things normalise, the reason for the increase will be removed, but does that mean they will stabilise or drop?

I think some prices of less iconic vehicles (like a Corolla) will drop, but I can't see the prices of sought after vehicles decreasing by much.
Maybe we will just see less of the ridiculously high 'price gouging' prices that are currently being asked.

Point 3 - how will this all affect the LC200? The LC200 isa bit different to other vehicles which saw a massive rise in used prices in that, at the peak of the 'Covid Tax' a all new model was launched.
Many people feared the LC300 would be a disappointment (no V8 etc)& so demand for the LC200 spiked.
Now that the LC300 has been launched & the new V6 motors are showing to outperform the old V8's, those fears are allayed.

Those with the means may be inclined to drop their LC200's in favour of the new 300, supply will increase and prices will decrease.

Bottom Line: I think the 'Covid Tax' scenario will start to wear off in early 2022, but I do not foresee a massive drop in 200 prices.
At least not to pre-Pandemic levels.

Anyone will a 200 would be wise to sell it sooner rather than later though. The halcyon high price days will only last a few more months...

[LesseW]

I think many people are paranoid to get the best price they can right now for their 200, hopefully this will create panic and prices will fall drastically to affordable levels.


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[henris]

..............
Anyone will a 200 would be wise to sell it sooner rather than later though. The halcyon high price days will only last a few more months...

Mmmm. That is what everybody said about the older gen Defenders.

[AndreasR]

LC Bakkie is the same story. Put a set of spot lights on the front and a John Deere sticker on the bad and guys want 900k.

Prices are here to stay for a while. I think there has been a massive jump in price of new luxury cars therefore people think they can charge huge prices for second hand. Good luck to them. If I’m not mistaken a new FJ was about 650k. Now about 750k.

Wessel just buy the 200. That accumulating pile of cash is going to make your mattress very uncomfortable to sleep on.

[LesseW]

I wish I could Andras but not yet


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[KurtG]

……That accumulating pile of cash is going to make your mattress very uncomfortable to sleep on.

And there we have it

[BushWacker]

I think Andreas is right,
we need to profile the market characteristics:

Row of high Amp SpotLamps
Row of John Deer Stickers
Bottles of BrandyWyn rolling around floor
Vellies ,yellow socks and kahki shorts
Plain unpatterned shirt
Hat thats mainly sat on
Kudu corkscrew horn on radiator
Tattered Volskas ChequeBookie
Slow drawling guys ‘makin plan’

Total Vehicle Price/s irrelevant …

Only deal in quantum of monthly payments (72months)
( … plus mega- monster- Balloon … )

…. Etc …. Etc … ad infinitum …


Wessel ….. zzzzzzzT… zzzzzzT ….

[LesseW]

……That accumulating pile of cash is going to make your mattress very uncomfortable to sleep on.

And there we have it

I don’t have a fruit and veg shop, i only accept efts

[AndreasR]

Wessel.

These corporate slave types will never understand,

[Mad Manny]

Did you mean "These corporate slave types will never understand Wessel."
or
"These corporate slave types will never understand, Wessel."
?